"If you know the exact cost and the exact schedule, chances are that the technology is obsolete." Feb 19
10 comments Latest by Bob
Erik K. Antonsson, a prof at Caltech, has a page of quotations related to design and engineering. Some samples:
“If a major project is truly innovative, you cannot possibly know its exact cost and its exact schedule at the beginning. And if in fact you do know the exact cost and the exact schedule, chances are that the technology is obsolete.”
-Joseph G. Gavin, Jr., discussing the design of the lunar module that landed NASA astronauts on the moon.
“What appears at first to be well-articulated, firmly established architecture often consists of a broad (perhaps even vague) product concept; a set of evolving, sometimes loosely formulated specifications; and multiple, often conflicting targets that may be difficult to meet. The product is invariably complex and the planning process, its attention to detail notwithstanding, is unlikely to uncover all the relevant conflicts and problems in advance. To meet an objective such as `the door on the new luxury sedan should create a feeling of solidity and security when it closes’ may be difficult, involving the application of technical expertise and a great deal of negotiation with engineers working on the body, electrical system, stamping, and assembly. Though planning establishes overall direction and architecture, product engineering must still confront numerous conflicts and trade-offs in local components and subsystems.”
-Kim B. Clark and Takahiro Fujimoto, “Product Development Performance: Strategy, Organization and Management in the World Auto Industry”
“And let it be noted that there is no more delicate matter to take in hand, nor more dangerous to conduct, nor more doubtful in its success, than to set up as the leader in the introduction of changes. For he who innovates will have for his enemies all those who are well off under the existing order of things, and only lukewarm supporters in those who might be better off under the new.”
-Niccolò Machiavelli, “The Prince”
Over 1 million people use 37signals' simple web-based software to collaborate on projects, track contacts, and organize their business with an intranet.
10 comments so far
jan korbel 19 Feb 07
Nice quotes.
heri 19 Feb 07
“you can know the exact cost and schedule of for an innovative project, but you will finish when the involved technologies are not innovated any more”
Andrew 19 Feb 07
If you enjoy these, even in a sort of morbid way, you’ll like Scott Rosenberg’s new book “Dreaming in Code” which is a case study of the multi-year train wreck of a project that was Chandler. It’s not exactly fun reading, but you’ll find yourself shaking your head in recognition every few pages, wondering why we never learn.
Tom Greenhaw 19 Feb 07
The first quote is saying two unrelated things, one true and the other absurd.
Estimating the time and therefore cost required to invent something new is guesswork and he correctly points out the obvious.
The other point is that if you can correctly estimate the cost and schedule what you are producing is obsolete.
According to Webster’s: obsolete – no longer in use or practice
To say that if you aren’t innovating what you produce is no longer in use or practice is absurd. There are vast amounts of products and services that not innovative and also not obsolete.
Obsolescence is not the opposite of innovation.
Ara Pehlivanian 19 Feb 07
Nice. Joseph G. Gavin, Jr. quote is nowprinted up and hanging under “The top 5 red flags of software development” in my cube. Thanks.
Greg 19 Feb 07
Does that explain why Highrise (formerly known as Sunrise) has taken so long to develop?
Tom Greenhaw 19 Feb 07
“Does that explain why Highrise (formerly known as Sunrise) has taken so long to develop?”
No, it explains why Highrise is not obsolete ;-)
Stephen 20 Feb 07
Obsolescence is not the opposite of innovation.
Totally agree. This smacks of geeky eliteness. Just because something is not innovative anymore does not make it obsolete. I’m a big fan of the web, and I make my living by it. But I still read books, use fountain pens and sketch with pencils.
Jeremy Kemper 20 Feb 07
These principles really come to life in Antonsson’s freeform engineering design course. Teams of two have ten weeks and a bag of parts to build robot contestants in a deceptively simple game, such as cooperatively moving a chain’s center link the highest up a mesh slope. The final competition is awesome, Caltech’s superbowl.
Bob 25 Feb 07
On the other hand, the guy using the technology that isn’t allegedly obsolete is liable to claim to be more efficient yet not actually finish on schedule. “Obsolete” and “mature” are not synonyms.
Comments are closed