This just dawned on me… Weather sites always show you today’s weather and then the future predictions, but wouldn’t it be helpful to know what yesterday was really like? Then I’d like to know how yesterday’s reality compares to today’s prediction. You know, is it going to be about the same, a little warmer, a little colder, a little wetter or drier? Wouldn’t that be helpful? Thoughts?
Environment Canada provides some of this information.
Vancouver weather
On the left you have yesterday's extreme temperatures and the middle two blue buttons provide a look at the past 24 hours. Yesterday's forecast is gone, so you can't compare it to what actually happened, but you are able to see what really happened.
I find it quite handy beign able to see how the temperature changed throughout the day, where it spiked and when the rain came.
But if you could see yesterday's actual weather, then you'd better be able to see how wrong they were...
For a school project once we were supposed to keep track of the temperature each day for a week. It would have been nice to be able to look at historical data. Of course if you know ahead of time, you just write some code to record such things, which would actually be remarkably easy requiring just a perl module or two and a cron job.
I like the idea of a "relative" forecast, especially with regard to temperature. "A little warmer in the morning than yesterday, but cooler in the afternoon" would help me decide what I need to wear or bring with me if I'm going out for the day.
Wetter or less wet is less useful...if it's wet at all you're going to bring a raincoat or umbrella, so it doesn't really make a difference. But it would be useful to have forecasts that compared today's forecasted temperatures with yesterday's actuals, even in general terms. People usually remember what they wore yesterday, and whether it was warm or cool enough.
Another thing I'd like to see, here in Montreal, is temperature forecasts for the Metro (the subway system). In winter the Metro is often unbearably hot; it can be 15 or 20 below zero outside but over 80 degrees in the Metro, quite a shock to the system. I often resort to wearing a really warm coat with easily removed layers underneath so I can strip down to a t-shirt once I get into the subway.
weather.com tells you what yesterday's weather did, as well as the rest of the week (or the last 7 days, to be more precise.)
I simply go to weather.com and type in Sydney, Australia. That way, I can see what tomorrow's weather actually is.
:)
I always thought that telling me the weather was sort of too much info. What I really want to know is *how I should dress today*. I've often thought that those little taskbar/notification area apps that show you the weather should really just have a picture of, for example, a sweater, or an umbrellla, or shorts.
Even when I'm going to be outside all day, what I'm really after is "Am I going to get rained on?".
The other use case is a fairly short forecast. "Is it going to rain tonight, or can I put off mowing the lawn until tomorrow? Or is there already a storm on radar moving this way, and I shouldn't start mowing, because it will be here in half an hour."
Those are the sorts of things most people are after with the weather. Can we do stuff outside, and how should we dress? Most of the rest of it is largely superfluous.
I think that these ideas could be packaged into a nice website or desktop application.
The idea about what to wear would be the best, if I steal that would you get mad ;)
Also, I think Josh Davis recorded the temperature for a while on praystation and had a weird graph to see how much the high's and low's were off on those days. But it was thrown in there with a bunch of other stuff and wasn't really explained, so it wasn't used for anything. I could be wrong though, but that came to mind for some reason.
Everyday in the Trib's Redeye (usually second to last page) there is a "What we said..." "... what it was" They are comparing pretty simple stats but it's something.
Today's says...
What we said... Wednesday: High 73, low 50; mostly sunny.
... what it was Wednesday: High 75, low 46; mostly sunny.
Simple fact about weather prediction:
Here in the UK, if you figure that tomorrow's weather will be pretty much like today's weather, statistically, you have a 75% chance of being right. The best weather forecasters in the UK make correct predictions less than 50% of the time.
Thank you for posting that weather.com has retroactive data! I was just wanting/needing that.
I'd be interested in seeing a page that compared yesterday's prediction to yesterday's actual. I've seen that on local TV weathercasts. However, here's the thing to consider, as well. A weatherperson needs to predict weather for a given area for a given time period. You're only in specific areas at specific times. So there's only a chance you'll get a good prediction of what's happening. My commute often shows a difference of temp of about (what I'd guess) is ten degrees (F), over less than 3 miles... because when I get on my bike (or the train) I'm farther away from the Bay than when I get to work. The water cools it significantly. But a forecaster can't really control where I go, they have to average those three together with probably a 50 mile radius. If they microcasted for a 3-mile radius, maybe they'd have better accuracy...
I'd like to see a graph of this kind of thing, say... predictions of 1 to 5 day forecasts matched with actual data. I think the interesting thing would be to look for patterns in "surprise events." Is there a regularity to the poorest predictions? Seasonal? Weekly? Might be fascinating. Might not. Who knows. Probably only a matter of some data mining to find out.
In my corner of the tropics, the prediction and the actual correspond almost perfectly. Forecast for a day in the tropics: Were going to have some sun with some rain mixed in. Possibly hit-and-miss showers, but just as long as you shower we dont mind. Yes, you.
That pretty much covers us year-round and allows the weather man to work on his tan.
Speaking of yesterday.
The New York Times, in print at least, publishes a chart showing the 24 hours leading up to 4 p.m. the day before. There's a nice graph of the temperature change, along with any precipitation. I check it daily.
no one likes their past work.
especially if it's wrong 50% of the time.
it would be cool for the user (i wouldn't mind it) but we'd have depressed and sad weatherpeople everywhere.
This isn't on the web, but every TV station here in Kansas City has a segment of their weather that shows if they were within 3 degrees of their "guess" from yesterday. Then they track how long they have been getting it right. "The three degree guarantee." Some are even giving away prizes if they do it it right. It is starting to get old. I am also starting to wonder where they get the number from. What you told me 10 PM, or what the 6 AM guys said?
Oh don't get me started on the "3 Degree Guarantee". It's actually a SEVEN degree guarantee.
They predict 68. Three each way yields seven chance for them: 65-66-67-68-69-70-71.
Ripoff.
wunderground.com has a detailed weather history ... search for your city and then choose a date from the drop down menu under the "detailed history and climate" header.
For Chicago, they have records back to 1970. Although usually I'm just interested in yesterday!
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